The hottest recent review of the world economic si

Recent world economic situation inventory the second half of the global economy is not optimistic

recent world economic situation inventory the second half of the global economy is not optimistic

China Construction machinery information

Guide: with the recent release of the second quarter economic data of major economies, the global economic growth trend in the first half of the year is gradually clear. On the whole, in the first half of the year, affected by the superposition effect of political cycle, regional turbulence and economic cycle, the global economic operation pattern was severe and complex, the growth of major economies slowed down, and some economies

with the recent release of the second quarter economic data of major economies, the global economic growth trend in the first half of the year has gradually become clear. On the whole, in the first half of the year, affected by the superposition effect of political cycle, regional turbulence and economic cycle, the global economic operation pattern was severe and complex, the growth of major economies slowed down, and some economies were close to the edge of recession

from the perspective of economic data, the US and Japan have experienced moderate economic growth, the European economy has entered the recession range, and the economic growth of emerging markets has continued to slow down. Although the waves caused by the recent European debt crisis have temporarily come to an end. However, in the second half of the year, with the risks of high sovereign debt in developed economies, great pressure on fiscal tightening, and great downward pressure on emerging economies affected by the decline in external demand, the global economic situation in the second half of the year was not optimistic

generally speaking, the path of global economic recovery from 2012 to 2013 is still tortuous, and it is difficult to get rid of the "weak growth" pattern in the medium and short term. According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economic growth rate is expected to be 3.5% in 2012, which is significantly slower than last year. Among them, the growth rate of developed economies is 1.4%, and that of emerging and developing economies is 5.6%. Affected by factors such as the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis and the global economic slowdown, the WTO expects the world trade volume to grow by only 3.7% in 2012, lower than the average level of the past 20 years

part I: recent overall review of the world economy

advanced capacity release coal mines expanded from 74 to 900 [1] the European debt crisis has developed into a long-term complex, and the world economic outlook is more uncertain

in the first half of the year, the European debt crisis has developed into a long-term complex, and the pace of global economic recovery has slowed significantly. Although the United States and Japan have maintained moderate growth, European data show that their economy is on the brink of recession, However, the economic growth of emerging markets has slowed down significantly. With the same leverage is the earliest one. Affected by the deepening European debt crisis, geopolitical tensions and other factors, the international financial market fluctuated violently, the US dollar and other safe haven assets strengthened, the euro and emerging market currencies weakened significantly, the global stock market fluctuated repeatedly, and the gold price and oil price hit the bottom and rebounded

from the perspective of the main risks of future global economic growth, the European debt crisis is still the biggest unstable factor facing the global economic recovery. Since this year, although the probability of Greece's exit from the euro zone has decreased, the structural root causes of Greece and even the whole euro zone have not been solved. The superposition effect of sovereign debt crisis, banking crisis, economic competitiveness crisis, economic governance crisis and even political crisis will continue to ferment. Spain and Italy have replaced Greece as new risk points. Looking forward to the global economy under the European debt crisis, all sectors are not optimistic

caterpillar, the world's largest engineering equipment manufacturer, said that the world economic outlook is more uncertain than at the beginning of the global economic crisis at the end of 2008. The oil under the valve can only be squeezed out through the gap between the piston and the oil cylinder of the pendulum impact tester and the oil outlet hole of the piston sleeve. It may take five years for the European economy to start strong growth again

Deloitte research released the "third quarter global economic outlook" report that the worsening debt crisis in the euro zone has affected countries outside the region such as Britain, the United States and Russia, and has also led to a decline in trade between the euro zone and other countries in the world

Lagarde, President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that the current market confidence in the global economic recovery is declining, the European debt crisis is the most important source of risk, and European policymakers need to continue to take strong measures to deal with the European debt crisis

in the middle of this month, Merrill Lynch lowered its global GDP growth forecast for 2012 to 3.3% from the previous 3.4%, and lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2013 to 3.6% from the previous 3.7%. "This reflects our more pessimistic outlook for Europe," Reis said

[2] the growth rate of the global manufacturing industry fell again.

the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) report released by various countries in early August showed that the growth rate of the global manufacturing industry fell again in July. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) of the United States fell to 49.8 in July, falling into a state of contraction. In July, the manufacturing PMI of Japan contracted at the fastest rate since April last year, while the eurozone has been contracting for the 11th consecutive month

affected by the reduction of demand in Europe and the United States, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing industry in China, India, South Korea and other Asian regions also fell synchronously, reflecting the slowdown of Asian economy driven by exports. Although China's official PMI data is above 50, it has declined for the eighth consecutive month, which also confirms in advance that China's economic indicators continued to fall in July

according to the enterprise survey results released by JPMorgan Chase, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) recorded 48.4 in July, revised to 49.1 in June, and the initial value was 48.9. The index fell below the boom bust watershed for the first time in seven months last month. Morgan analysis pointed out that the sluggish demand and inventory adjustment were the reasons for the further contraction of the manufacturing industry at the beginning of the third quarter, and unemployment occurred for the first time in nearly two and a half years

although the recent reduction of purchase costs has provided some breathing opportunities for manufacturing enterprises, if the potential demand fails to rebound in the future, there will be no long-term benefits for manufacturing enterprises

on the whole, subject to the severe domestic and international environment, the continuous decline of PMI data means that China and even the economy have not yet come out of the downward haze, the current downward pressure of oversupply in the manufacturing industry has not been eliminated, and the international and domestic effective demand continues to be weak, which will further affect economic performance and market expectations in the future

[3] the stimulating effect of monetary policy on economic growth is limited.

since August, all major economies in the world have not adjusted monetary policy. On the one hand, the benchmark interest rate of most developed economies is close to zero, on the other hand, countries also need to have an observation period for policy adjustment in July. From the current interest rate situation of various economies, increasing quantitative easing may be one of the few policy weights in the future. In terms of policy effect, although loose monetary policy is conducive to reducing the price of funds, ensuring the liquidity of financial markets, and avoiding the economy from falling into a serious credit crunch, what major economies face is not a simple lack of liquidity, but a deep-seated structural problem. Increasing monetary easing is more of a "shot in the arm" to stimulate market confidence, and it is expected to have a limited effect on economic growth

United States: the Federal Reserve will make a new interest rate resolution on September 13. If the Federal Reserve does launch qe3, the third quarter will be the time window

Japan: the Bank of Japan unanimously passed this month to maintain the target interest rate at The 1% range remained unchanged, and no further monetary easing measures were introduced. Shirakawa Fangming, President of the central bank, said that the purchase of overseas bonds by the Bank of Japan is equivalent to foreign exchange intervention, which belongs to the jurisdiction of the government. At present, there is no need to abolish the 0.1% minimum interest rate for purchasing Japanese government bonds through the asset purchase plan

euro zone: European Central Bank (ECB) management committee member Cohen said that the ECB has not seen the effect of the second round of inflation brought about by the rise in oil prices. "The current rise in oil prices is short-term and has not immediately affected inflation expectations and our monetary policy."

UK: MPC member Thompson said that MPC should have the decision-making power to launch new financial instruments to combat inflation. He also said that the central bank may be more effective in promoting economic recovery through other tools in order to maintain inflation close to its set target of 2%

Indonesia: the Bank of Indonesia kept the target interest rate unchanged at a record low of 5.75% for the sixth consecutive month this month. As expected, the country previously released strong second quarter economic growth data, despite weak exports

India: suprao, President of the Bank of India, reiterated his concern about inflation, saying that the inflation rate was still above the level that the central bank felt at ease. It also said that even if supply shocks lead to inflation, monetary policy is still the first line of defense

South Korea: the Central Bank of Korea kept the interest rate unchanged as expected this month to assess the effect of the unexpected interest rate cut last month, but investors continue to bet that the central bank will soon cut interest rates again to support the economy. The survey conducted after the central bank meeting showed that the Bank of Korea may cut interest rates for the second time in three months next month, and then keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of this year

from the perspective of global policy direction, the current situation of "weak growth, high unemployment and falling inflation" will make the focus of global policy shift more to "promoting growth". In terms of policy means, the main tone of "fiscal tightening" in developed economies has not fundamentally changed, but Europe will shift from blindly tightening to taking into account the "balance between tightening and growth". Given the limited space for fiscal stimulus, "loose money" has become a more reliable stimulus

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